Final Four Preview: No. 5 Butler Bulldogs vs. No. 5 Michigan State Spartans
2010-04-05
The Michigan State Spartans are back in the Final Four for the second consecutive season, also for the 6th time in 12 years! In addition to the game clinching free throws, Morgan had his 6th double double of the basketball season, scoring 13 points and pulling down a 10 boards against a the Tennessee Vols who refused to go away peacefully. Junior Durrell Summers led scorers with 21 points on 8 of 10 shooting and his avg. is 22.5 ppg in the 2010 NCAA Tourney, almost 12 points more than his season average. The Michigan State Spartans have won two games in the absence of point guard Kalin Lucas as Summers, Draymond Green and Korie Lucious have picked up the scoring with the team's leading scorer out.
The MSU Spartans are the only team left in the tournament with experience at this level. They did it last year, and a big part of this team's contributors played lots of minutes the team last year. Coach Izzo has a March legacy, and he's lost just three times in the second game of NCAA Tournament weekends in his career. This means, if he gets to the championship game, he won’t be easy to beat. Durrell Summers, Korie Lucious and Draymond Green join Morgan in playing the best basketball of their careers. MSU could be the most athletic team left.
The Butler Bulldogs and the Michigan State Spartans are at opposite ends of the world in terms of experience in playing in this tournament, as the Bulldogs are making the first Final Four appearance in school history after beating Kansas State on Saturday 63 – 56. The Butler Bulldogs, who have now won an impressive 24 straight games, are allowing a only 56.5 ppg in the tourney and haven't allowed to team to score 60 or more points in a game since Feb. 26, 2010. The Bulldogs defense is led by guard Willie Veasley, the Horizon League Defensive Player of the Year, who, with the help of Ronald Nored, held Kansas State's backcourt duo of Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen scoreless for almost 30 minutes. It’s not all hype this Butler Bulldogs team can play.
Now to the important section of this article the college basketball betting picks. www.sportsbook.com has Butler favorites by 1.5 points with the over / under at 126.
The Michigan State Spartans are 27 - 8 money line and 14 - 20 ATS. The Butler Bulldogs are 32 - 4 money line and 16 - 20 ATS. When they have played common teams, the MSU Spartans are 5-2 straight up and 4-3 ATS. The Bulldogs are 4-1 outright, but just 2-3 ATS.
The Spartans averages 72.5 ppg against teams normally allowing 66 points. This is on 47.2 percent shooting to teams that usually only permit just 42.4 percent.
The stats for the Big 10 schools are even more staggering on the defensive end. They allow only 64 points per game against teams that normally get only 69.4 points, which makes them a 40.6 percent shooting team when they are usually a 44.2 percent shooting team.
Butler scores 69.4 ppg against teams that score about 66.7 on 45 percent shooting versus 42.9 percent. They are not slugs on defense either, they only allow 59.6 points per game where teams usually shoot at 44.6 percent.
Michigan State is 25-10 in the NCAA Tournament ATS all time. Butler is 43-21 outside the conference ATS. If we look at over / under trends the Spartans have gone over 8 - 0 against the Horizon League, but under 30-12 when they are underdogs. All key points for college basketball bettors to keep an eye on.
I predict that the Spartans will beat out the Bulldogs, Izzo will get his team ready and I think the bright lights and big atmosphere will be too much for Butler. MSU +1.5
No. 11 Washington Huskies v. No. 2 West Virginia Mountaineers
2010-03-25
The No. 11 seed Washington Huskies (26 – 9) will meet the No. 2 seed West Virginia Mountaineers (29 -6) this Thursday, March 25, 2010 at the Carrier Dome in Syracuse, New York.
This is a matchup between the Pac 10 and the Big East in the East Regional semi-finals for a spot in the Elite 8. Both schools seek their first trip to Final Four in more than 50 years. The Mountaineers lost the national championship in 1959. The Huskies advanced to the national semifinals in 1953, which is the farthest they have gone in the tournament. But this is a whole new year and the past doesn’t really count, Washington has won 9 straight games, including the Pac 10 tournament, while West Virginia has won 8 straight games, which includes beating everyone in the Big East tournament.
Washington averages almost 80 points a game while allowing only 70 points per game. The Huskies opened the tournament scoring 80 on Marquette and 82 against New Mexico. Put it in perspective the New Mexico Lobos usually hold their opponents to 67. West Virginia goes for almost 73 points per night and keeps their opponents to 63 point per game. The Mountaineers held Morgan State to 50 points per game and Missouri to 59 points per game.
West Virginia’s Da’Sean Butler has been one of the most exciting players in the tournament to watch play this year. He’s coming off of a great 28 point scoring night against Missouri their last time out, not to mention he will be Washington’s biggest defensive task throughout the game to hold his scoring down. The Washington Huskies will also need to find a way to contain Kevin Jones and Devin Ebanks from the Mountaineers, that is a lot of players and talent the Huskies need to keep an eye on. Both forwards average double digit points per game and are strong rebounders in the paint, which I think is the key to any win in college basketball.
Washington will try to keep the pace of this match up and score as many points in transition as possible, as they do not match up well one on one with the West Virginia Mountaineers. Quincy Pondexter and Isaiah Thomas have been solid leaders for the Washington Huskies so far in the tournament, but they will both need to play at a high level to beat out the No. 2 seed in the East Region.
I like how Washington looked in their first two games of the NCAA tournament, but the West Virginia Mountaineers have too many options to give the ball up to on the offensive end for the Huskies to keep track of.
www.Sportsbook.com has the West Virginia Mountaineers as 4.5 point favorites over the Washington Huskies and the over / under is set at 142. Even though I like the Mountaineers to come out on top in this game, I don’t really like the line. However the over / under at 142 is perfect for an over bet.
CBB: Opening Night NCAA Intrigue
2010-03-19
Top seeds Kansas and Kentucky don’t figure to have a lot or work on their hands in their opening games and No.3 seeds New Mexico and Georgetown are expected to move on and play on Saturday, but what about the other four games? This is where close contests are not only presumed, but upsets are thought to be a real possibility. Bring the shovel and start digging. Get the latest prices on these games on the Sportsbook.com LIVE ODDS page.
Are six seeds secure?
Marquette and Tennessee will both wear the favorite’s hat, but is it a snug fit or one that could be blown off under uncertain conditions. The Golden Eagles (22-11, 17-10 ATS) have won six of the last eight games, however have had issues with teams that prefer to play at fast pace. In three games in this stretch, the height-challenged Marquette squad has surrendered 50 percent or more in defensive field goal percentage to Seton Hall, Villanova and Georgetown.
In comes Washington, on a serious roll (7-0-, 6-1 ATS) as Pac-10 postseason champs. The Huskies average 79.8 points per game and like to “floor it” on offense. Washington (24-9, 14-18 ATS) has covered four of their last five NCAA tournament games and No.11 seeds that that average over 73 points a game are prime material to pull first round upsets. Washington is receiving 1.5-points at Sportsbook.com with total of 143, yet keep in mind the former Warriors from Milwaukee are 7-0 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.
Prior to SEC semi-final contest, Tennessee (25-8, 13-17 ATS) had won five in a row and seven of eight and looking like a team on the come. The Volunteers brutally grotesque loss to Kentucky by 29-point evidently has left an impression against Mountain West team that won conference tournament on the road literally, with smallish spread.
Tennessee has covered their last four outings off a spread loss, however are only 3-7-1 ATS in Big Dance tournament games. The Vols play much better from the lead, since they shoot only 31.3 percent from three-point land.
San Diego State (25-8, 18-13 ATS) is not terribly tall, yet super aggressive on the offensive boards, accounting for +7 rebound margin. Like Tennessee, the Aztecs playing outstanding defense (40.5 vs. 39.4 for Vols) and they convert on 47.7 percent of shot attempts. S.D. State stifled UNLV on their own floor in MWC title tilt, holding them to 45 points on 32.7 percent accuracy and they are 22-9 ATS after a win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.
Tennessee is a 3.5-point favorite, with only three covers the last 10 times they were the preferred choice.
8 vs. 9 or 9 vs. 8 who knows…
In the last 11 tournaments, the lower seed has held a slight edge with 23-21 SU record and 23-19-2 ATS mark. That would give Northern Iowa (28-4, 21-10 ATS) a narrow margin in theory and they are one-point dogs to UNLV.
The Panthers are balanced and go 10 deep and don’t beat themselves. Northern Iowa is never in a hurry offensively, with C Jordan Eglseder and F Adam Koch the inside presence and bombers like Ali Farokhmanesh to do the scoring. UNI also can tie-up teams up on defense, holding them to 54.3 points per game (40.3 percent) and are willing to do the work for the entire shot clock if necessary. This patient club is 8-2 ATS after a win by 15 points or more this season.
UNLV (25-8, 19-12 ATS) had their six game winning streak snapped in the MWC finals. The Rebels have a stellar backcourt with Tre’Von Willis and Oscar Bellfield; however do not have a starter more than 6’8 to go against Northern Iowa’s big guys. UNLV is 15-4 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 under coach Lon Kruger the last three seasons, which gives this the feel of last basket wins conflict.
The other 8 vs. 9 matchup is more about survival than just being close encounter. Wake Forest (19-10, 15-11 ATS) has wallowed losing five of six. Al-Farouq Amino is their most productive offensive weapon and the Demon Deacons do a descent job working the glass, but lack consistent scoring from the guard spots. Wake is just 1-10 ATS in previous NCAA tournament tilts.
Texas (24-9, 11-18 ATS) fell like housing values, going from No.1 in the country to an eighth seed in the course of the season, an unprecedented event. As the year has worn on, its crystal clear this team lacks chemistry, focus and dreadful point guard play exacerbates the situation. Texas is a five point favorite for whatever reason and is 3-11 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points per game after 15 or contests have been played this season. Anybody have a coin?
CBB: Michigan at Michigan State (4:00 PM ET, CBS)
2010-03-05
Michigan State is one of three teams with four losses in Big Ten play. That is the total that is going to grab at least a share of the conference regular season title. Of course, that means for in order to the Spartans to be in on the sharing, they need to simply beat rival Michigan at home on Sunday afternoon. After nearly being upset Thursday night by Penn State, perhaps that goal is easier said than done for State. Oddsmakers figure the Spartans will get it done, but its up to bettors at Sportsbook.com to decide whether or not they will do it by enough points to satisfy all their backers.
The Spartans 67-65 win as 13-point home favorites over last place Penn State epitomizes their season. Michigan State (23-7, 11-18 ATS) is playing to be co-champion of the Big Ten, but it hardly feels like it. The Spartans 9-0 conference start and one-point road wins at Minnesota and Michigan only camouflaged their weaknesses that emerged later in February. Kalin Lucas was carrying this club, with super sub Draymond Green being the only other consistent scoring threat. Lately, even Lucas has been affected, with eight turnovers and one assist in last Sunday’s win over Purdue and he made two miscues against the Nittany Lions that almost cost his club the game. Coach Tom Izzo’s maddening squad is 13-2 and uninspiring 4-11 ATS as a home favorite.
Michigan (14-15, 13-12 ATS) started the year in the Top 25 and has fallen faster than American Idol winner Taylor Hicks from the limelight. If one supports and watched the Maize and Blue this season, you would be having Tommy Amaker flashbacks with how this team has performed. Coach John Beilein has been trying to force feed 6’10 center Zack Gibson into the starting lineup, as 6’8 DeShawn Sims is the only other regular start over 6-foot-5. Gibson becomes important against the larger and more physical Spartans since the Wolverines have been outrebounded eight straight games. Michigan is 2-5 and 6-1 ATS as an away underdog.
Dating back to 1998, Michigan State has won all 10 games over in-state rival Michigan in East Lansing, with a 5-5 ATS record. The StatFox Power Line shows Michigan State by 9.
Oklahoma at Kansas 9:00E ESPN
2010-02-22
Kansas (26-1, 10-13-1 ATS) is trying to sweep the Big 12 this year with its talented club and has three remaining games that will put them to the test, however that doesn’t begin until Feb.27, as they figure to have little resistance against Oklahoma (13-13, 9-14 ATS). The Jayhawks may not always play their best, but master recruiter and motivator Bill Self always finds a reason for the team or individual players to test themselves to perform at a higher level. The high flying Jayhawks are 19-5 ATS when they score 81 or more points in a game over the last two years and figure to put up numbers tonight.
To say it has been an eventful campaign in Norman, is like saying the Mid-Atlantic States have seen a little snow the last few weeks. Losing streaks, selfish play, underachieving players, suspensions, you name it, coach Jeff Caple has been going up and down the emotional elevator all season. If there has been a bright spot on an otherwise dismal year, it has been the late maturation and emergence of freshman guard Tommy Mason-Griffin. Opposing teams have picked up on Mason-Griffin as a deadly three-point shooter and have been forced to account for him, opening up areas in the lane for the Sooners to have easier shots. Oklahoma will need him and others since they are 13-25 ATS as an underdog the last few years.
Kansas has covered the spread just once on last seven tries, though could have on at least two other occasions, opening up big leads against large numbers and coasting to victory. The Jayhawks are 22-point favorites with a total of 147.5 and are 16-5 ATS in last 21 Monday assignments. It will be intriguing to see what kind of fight Oklahoma actually has as the basketball program, since they have mirrored their football brethren from this past season and are 15-36-3 ATS on the road.
Kansas has swept six straight over the Sooners at Allen Fieldhouse with .500 spread record and own the nation’s longest home winning streak at 57 games. The UNDER is 6-2 in Lawrence for Boomer Sooner’s last eight visits.
CBB: Spotlight turns to Ranked Teams for Bettors
2010-01-27
Other than Saturday, Wednesday is the most time-consuming and harried for the sports basketball bettor. Betting college basketball properly involves a great deal of time, as does looking thru a full slate of NBA encounters. Fortunately, Sportsbook.com has several handicapping shortcuts to help alleviate that time expenditure, including the BETTING TRENDS, TOP TEN BETS, and GAME MATCHUPS. Let’s focus on a pair of key early games in college hoops for this evening. Get the latest prices on the LIVE ODDS page.
Villanova on historical pace
Last season’s trip to the Final Four helped bring Villanova back into the discussion about the best teams in college basketball. For an encore, coach Jay Wright’s team is trying to better that. The Wildcats 18-1 start (14-4 ATS) matches the record of a Villanova team from 59 years ago and they remain the only unbeaten club in the taxing Big East Conference at 7-0. Their lone defeat (75-65) was to fellow city member Temple back on Dec. 13 and that loss looks far better today with the Owls not having lost in A-10 action.
Villanova has racked up nine consecutive wins since then and is 10-3 ATS after three or more consecutive wins this season. Led by Scottie Reynolds, the Wildcats are tough, have great resolve, and are a lot like another Philly icon from the movies, Rocky, who has to be knocked out in order to be defeated. There isn’t much this team doesn’t do right, shooting almost 47 percent, 38.4 percent from downtown and convert better than 75 percent from the charity stripe. When it comes to effort, they hold opposing teams to 39.5 percent shooting and out-rebound them by seven a game.
Sportsbook.com has Nova as 10.5-point home favorites, with total of 167 at the Wachovia Center. This is their second trip this season into this venue and Villanova is 12-4 ATS as a favorite. They will have to deal with Luke Harangody of Notre Dame, the Big East’s leading scorer at 24.7 points a game. The Fighting Irish (15-5, 7-6-1 ATS) can match scores with Villanova, however is nowhere near as skilled defensively. Notre Dame is 4-13 ATS in road games versus good teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a game over the last two seasons. ESPN has coverage at 7 Eastern.
Vandy is dandy
With top-ranked Kentucky suffering its first loss of the season on Tuesday night, only one squad remains undefeated in the SEC, Vanderbilt (15-3, 9-6 ATS). The Commodores have run off nine straight wins since losing to Illinois and Western Kentucky in the early days of December. Vanderbilt is 5-0 in the SEC for the first time in 44 years and is led by junior center A.J. Ogilvy. Vandy works the ball expertly to find quality shots and makes 49.7 of attempts as a team which explains 6-2 ATS record in this hot streak.
Laying in wait is ambitious in-state rival Tennessee (15-3, 8-7 ATS), who lost its first conference game at Georgia 78-63 this past Saturday. Coach Bruce Pearl knows Vanderbilt will play zone, daring his inconsistent three-point attack to beat them deep. The Tennessee fans will be in full throat as their team is 26-11 ATS at home games playing against a top-level team with a win percentage of 80 percent or higher. The Vols are 6.5-point favorites on ESPNU starting at 7 Eastern and the Vanderbilt guards will have to hold up to the pressure defense better than their predecessors, as they are 10-23 ATS in road games versus teams forcing 18 or more turnovers.
CBB: College Basketball Late Wednesday Action
Wednesday night’s college basketball betting board is loaded with 34 different games, meaning all sorts of different profit making opportunities. In the latter half of the evening a pair of big games will be televised, with Duke hosting Florida State on ESPN, and BYU visiting New Mexico on the Mountain Network. At last check, bettors at Sportsbook.com were siding with both home favorites according to the BETTING TRENDS page. Let’s take a quick look at both games.
Blue Devils defense looks to respond again
Duke was upset last week at N.C. State 88-74, allowing the Wolfpack to make 58.2 percent of shots. It didn’t matter to coach Mike Krzyzewski if N.C. State was just having a hot shooting night, his team had to defend better and did they ever the next time out. At a hostile Clemson environment, they held the revenge-minded Tigers to 47 points on 37.5 percent shooting. Duke now (16-3, 12-6 ATS) returns home where they score 91.6 points per game to face a Florida State (15-4, 4-10 ATS) squad that can also D-it up.
Coming into tonight, the Seminoles are the top-rated defense team in the country in field goal percentage at 35.5. Florida State (15-4, 4-10 ATS) is long and athletic, forcing 16.7 turnovers a game and almost seven rejections. What holds the Noles back from being elite team is perimeter shooting, much of the explanation for the poor spread record this season. Florida State is 2-9 ATS mark vs. defensive teams with shooting percentage defense of 42 percent or less in ’09-10.
Duke shoots over 50 percent on its home floor and a remarkable 43.2 percent from beyond the arc, which in part is why oddsmakers have them as 13-point favorites with total of 140. The Dukies are 13-4 ATS at home when the total is 140 to 149.5; however are just 3-7 ATS in Durham against the Seminoles despite winning nine of 10. Dick Vitale will be singing the praises of Coach K and the Dukies starting at 9 Eastern.
Magical Mountain West matchup
Nobody saw two ranked teams from the Mountain West Conference squaring off in late January. BYU (20-1, 11-7 ATS) is led by point guard Jimmer Fredette, who continues to play heavy minutes in spite of battling the affects of mononucleosis. Fredette, besides being an excellent shooter is top notch passer to the Cougars big people. This is why they are shooting 50.7 percent from the field, fourth in the country. BYU is the last unbeaten club in the MWC and is 15-3 ATS in road games over the last two seasons.
New Mexico (18-3, 13-7 ATS) was the most pleasant surprise in the country this side of Syracuse back in December. Most believed the Lobos suffering back to back losses in the first part of January was finally the signal that this team had overachieved and was headed back to medicority. However, coach Steve Alford’s squad has again proved the critics wrong with four consecutive W’s and they are 12-3 ATS in home games after three consecutive conference contests since 2006-07 campaign.
The line has jumped around, but presently the Lobos are favored by two-points and are 9-0 ATS after two straight wins by 15 points or more. New Mexico is 4-2 in conference and needs this win to keep title hopes alive. This matchup starts at 10 Eastern and is on the Mountain Network.
CBB: Georgia Tech at North Carolina (2:00 PM ET, ESPN)
2010-01-15
There is only one team in the ACC that sports an unbeaten conference mark after a week-and-a-half. That team is neither Duke nor North Carolina, rather it is Virginia. That means the Tar Heels are already playing in catch-up mode as they host Georgia Tech on Saturday. The defending national champs are young, talented and favored to win the game. Most bettors will probably be on that side of the line come tip-off, despite the fact that the Yellow Jackets have already upset Duke. Be sure to follow the Sportsbook.com BETTING TRENDS throughout the day to see where the money is going.
The Yellow Jackets (12-4. 7-4 ATS) have made great strides this season, thanks to coach Paul Hewitt’s recruiting efforts, yet the foundation of this club is 6-9 forward Gani Lawal. The junior received an appraisal last spring that he was not a first round draft choice in the eyes of NBA personnel and took the constructive criticism to heart. He’s since emerged as a team leader, showing the first year players what it takes to succeed at this level. Lawal needs to have a big game against North Carolina’s tall timber in the frontcourt. The Yellow Jackets are only 46-70 ATS in road games vs. good shooting teams making 45 percent or more of their attempts. Lawal’s shot altering influence could help improve this mark though.
Watching North Carolina (12-5. 6-9 ATS) play this season, is much like a buffet restaurant. The vast amount of food looks delicious, you load up the plate, but half way thru you realize the food doesn’t have a lot of taste and in the end; you are left content but not satisfied. That is what Tar Heel basketball has been to this point, often good, sometimes remarkable, but over 40 minutes, too many dead spots to make it truly satisfying. Turnovers continue to plague HC Roy Williams’ club, but much to his shagrin, it’s just not the guards, all players have been guilty. Unless they clean this area up, they will extend their run as a poor ACC wager (6-14 ATS record in L20).
Since ’97, the Tar Heels are 11-0 and 6-5 ATS against Georgia Tech. The StatFox Power Line shows North Carolina by 7.